PLAYBOOK #14 / 25
CHART PATTERNS
Cup and Handle: Macro Accumulation & High-Probability Breakout Blueprints
Target Win Rate
70% - 76%
Target RRR
1:3.0 to 1:6.0
Execution Bias
MACRO ACCUMULATION
Best Timeframes
Daily, Weekly
1. Institutional Logic: The U-Shaped Base
Pioneered by William O'Neil, the Cup and Handle represents institutional accumulation over weeks or months. The "Cup" forms a smooth, rounded bowl as smart money absorbs selling pressure without forcing sharp price spikes.
The Handle represents the final shakeout: a minor, low-volume pullback (retaining upper 1/3 of the cup depth) that flushes out weak hands before explosive multi-month expansion.
2. Entry & Invalidation Rules
- Entry: Enter when price breaks above the rim resistance line with heavy volume.
- Stop Loss: Place below the low of the handle pullback.
- Target: Measure the cup depth (from rim to bottom) and project upward from the rim breakout.
INSTITUTIONAL TRADE SPECIFICATION
Asset: Gold / XAUUSD (Daily Chart) • Bias: Macro Cup & Handle Long
Entry: $2,075.00 • Stop Loss: $1,980.00 ($95.00 Risk)
Target 1: $2,265.00 (1:2.0 RRR) • Target 2: $2,455.00 (1:4.0 RRR)
Entry: $2,075.00 • Stop Loss: $1,980.00 ($95.00 Risk)
Target 1: $2,265.00 (1:2.0 RRR) • Target 2: $2,455.00 (1:4.0 RRR)
Target Win Rate
65% - 72%
Target RRR
1:3.0+
Execution Bias
CONFIRMATION